jump to navigation

Signal vs. Noice in times of volatility March 31, 2008

Posted by Wille in Emerging Trends, Investing & Economics.
trackback

Anyone trying to follow the gyrations of the economy and markets these days would be excused for feeling slightly panicked. But in times like these, trying to react and predict every movement of the markets and its implications is folly - it’s a sure way of growing an ulcer.

What is more interesting and definitely a lot more productive is to try to see what the long term implications of current and recent events might be, what long term effects will they have in 1, 2 or 5 years time? What do those long term trends mean in terms of you protecting your downside and capitalizing on the opportunities?
Forget about whether the stock markets are up or down 5% tomorrow, try to see where the ball will bounce next in the long term, before someone else does it!

The best medicine in these days is to apply a few mindsets, regardless of whether you are an investor, running a startup, or just a regular Joe worried about his livelihood:

  • Don’t panic about events on a particular day!
  • ..but don’t delude yourself either, or engage in wishful thinking. Just because you don’t want or wish for something to happen doesn’t mean it can’t happen anyway. Self delusion, wishful thinking and denial are strong instincts these days in most people, don’t be one of them.
  • Don’t try to “time the market” - unless you are clairvoyant, you’re likely to get it wrong, just try to find what you think is good value based on rigorous analysis and research. But be warned, there may not be much good value out there at the moment.
  • Take the long view - try to see where current and recent events are leading in the long term, not what might happen today or tomorrow.

Volatile times carry a lot of noice, the trick is in cutting through the noice and finding the signal.

Comments»

No comments yet — be the first.